Millions will die if we don't replace blanket lockdown measures with targeted protective measures
Updated: Nov 20, 2020
Experts say the Oxford University/ Pfizer vaccine we are hoping will pass final stages of clinical trials won’t be available to the majority of the population until mid-2021 , what we choose to do until then will decide the fate of millions around the world. Our actions will also form the blueprint for the next pandemic, which is unlikely to be too many years away, and will most likely be one of many we have in our lifetimes, considering the interconnectedness of the planet and the fact we discover 3-4 new viruses every year (not including those created in labs) .
The World Health Organisation (WHO), the original champions of blanket lockdown, now stand resolutely against it. Dr Van Kerkhove, the lead of the WHO’s Pandemic Response Team urged countries to make use of the tools currently available to adopt a “tailored, specific, localised” approach to contain new clusters of infections as the economic, health and social costs of lockdown have been “massive” .
As a result a group of Doctors and scientists formed an organisation called the World Doctor’s Alliance  to condemn the WHO and other bodies who originally sought or still seek to continue blanket lockdowns. In addition the WDA, in an open letter, revealed that the “Government have acted maliciously in censoring doctors, nurses and NHS staff. The people have the perfect right to hear what is going on in hospitals, and the medical profession have a duty to look after the public and to reassure them.”. This demand was echoed by top scientists, NHS leaders and business chiefs who have formed a campaign group called ‘Resolve’, led by the former secretary-general for the International Society For Human Rights in the UK, which state that their main aim is “to give a voice to the scientists, business leaders, artists and staff in the NHS who believe the Government’s approach to tackling coronavirus is wrong. But when they speak out they have been smeared and attacked — often just for questioning laws rushed through Parliament”. The group claims that "hysteria" around Covid-19 is "worse than the virus" and urge Boris Johnson to
take a rational approach to the pandemic . Moreover, the Great Barrington Declaration  was issued by a huge group of 35,000 Doctors, epidemiologists & public health scientists from prestigious institutions like Harvard, Stanford and Oxford calling for the governments of the world to end blanket lockdown restrictions and use targeted measures instead as more deaths, health problems, starvation and unspeakable poverty are resulting from these restrictions. The WHO’s recent confession and calls for blanket lockdown to end have been ignored by the majority of governments around the world, including our own, as have the WDA’s open letter, Resolve and the Great Barrington Declaration. Former Supreme Court Judge Lord Sumption summed up the government’s actions perfectly “…the main culprits are not the public but Ministers, who have got caught in a trap of their own making. They stoked up people’s fears to justify their decisions and induce compliance. They promised the impossible and, when the inevitable failure came, they blamed it on the public for not complying with their commands. The real reason Ministers have not dared to answer the questions posed by their policies is that their purpose is not to suppress the virus, which they must know is impossible. It is to shield themselves from responsibility.”. Whilst, Alberto Giubilini, an Oxford University scholar specializing in bioethics points to the absence of ethical debate over lockdown: a refusal to list, let alone balance, the pros and cons .
The government’s own forecast predicts 200,000 deaths will result from lockdown measures (more than 4 times as many lives as have been claimed by Covid) , cancer charities also predict an additional 35,000- 60,000 more lives will be lost if more targeted lockdown measures are not used [10, 11], tens of thousands of lives have been lost due to adverse health consequences of lockdown such as increases in excess high blood pressure and diabetes related deaths , with 25,000 excess at home deaths between March and September alone , there have been hundreds more suicides [14, 15, 16], hundreds of thousands of lives will be lost to poverty in the coming decade and past studies of the impact of austerity suggest hundreds of thousands more lives are likely to be lost due to the impact of our immense government debt reducing public services in the coming years/ decades [17, 18].
The only thing unique about this pandemic is our response to it, many far worse have come before and there will be many more pandemics in the future (3-4 new viruses are discovered every year  and over the last 100 years or so we have had five influenza pandemics ), including far more deadly viruses than this one. We've almost bankrupt ourselves in our handling of this pandemic alone; the UK’s national debt has hit £2tn (surpassing the size of the economy for the first time) , we’ve entered the worst recession in more than a century , a recession so severe that the economy has already lost 17 years of growth , and the economy has contracted more in the last quarter (plunging 20.4%) than any time since records began . Research by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex has warned more than 6.5 million jobs could be lost due to the economic fallout from the UK’s coronavirus lockdown. This would equate to about a quarter of the UK’s total jobs, with more than half of the positions in certain sectors being lost .
If the strategy we’ve followed to tackle covid forms the blue print for handling future pandemics then it wouldn't be hyperbolic to say the collapse of civilisation as we know it is imminent.
The austerity and poverty resulting from this immense debt will be repaid with hundreds of thousands of innocent lives, far exceeding those lost to Covid [26, 17, 18]. Yet that debt was rising at £8bn every 2 weeks even before England went into full lockdown and so aforementioned consequences too are continuing to rise exponentially with each passing day that we allow this madness to continue .
Around the world 1.34 million have died from Covid, the average age being 82.4 years old , but almost 50 times this number die every year from other causes  and every day 353,000 babies are born, every 3-4 days more babies are born than have died this year from Covid, the fact is we will need an extremely high functioning economy to feed and support such a large number of people , yet we have already devastated our economies. As it stands the World Health Organisation already predicts our extreme lockdown measures are likely to have at least doubled child malnutrition, which, in cruel irony, increases children’s susceptibility to diseases which are actually deadly to those of their age group [31, 32] (Children’s innate immunity is so strong they rarely experience even mild symptoms from Covid, their viral loads are so low they rarely spread it and they never die from it but they are the ones that are paying the highest price for our irrational actions [33, 32]).
We are sacrificing millions of young lives in an attempt to save a tiny percentage of those so old they have on average already surpassed their natural life expectancy  and worst of all it appears that blanket lockdown measures have completely failed to save even these lives, despite our efforts, due to the inherent nature of highly transmissible viruses once they have spread throughout a population. Only countries like New Zealand which prevented the virus from spreading throughout the population in the first place (by closing their borders early and quarantining the entire country from foreigners carrying the infection and tracking and tracing the few that did), which ideally we’d have done, managed to have any real impact on overall deaths but that ship sailed so long ago for us and most countries that its sails are no longer visible on the distant horizon; countries which locked down after the virus had already spread throughout the population did so too late for the lockdown to be effective. The lack of impact of blanket lockdown, in those countries which locked down too late, is demonstrated by the fact that deaths plateaued and decreased in a way that mirrored the death curves of countries like Sweden which had no lockdown (see graph below), revealing other more significant factors, probably each countries cross reactive T cell immunity [35, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42] and herd immunity thresholds [43, 44, 45], must have been influencing/ limiting the number of deaths not lockdown. [Interestingly, I noticed that if you multiply the percentage of the population predicted to be without cross reactive T cell immunity by the threshold for herd immunity by the mortality rate for Covid (without any t cell immunity) you get a predicted mortality rate of 0.05-0.14%, which fits the data pretty well, considering the 10 worst affected European countries have a mortality rate of 0.058%, and the worst, Belgium, has a rate of 0.12%.]
Millions more, around the world, are dying as a direct result of blanket lockdown restrictions than from Covid itself. Millions more will have their lives shortened or ended by poverty resulting from these measures and just about everyone is suffering to one extent or another. Using targeted responses instead of blanket lockdown would be more effective, rid us of covid in its worst form faster and save so many lives too many have been lost already.
We are the first generation in history to quarantine healthy or uninfected people. Even when faced with the far more deadly Spanish flu in 1918, which killed 50 million people (covid has only lead to 1.34 million deaths globally ; almost 50 times this number die every year from other causes ) and predominantly targeted young and healthy people, we never resorted to such irrational measures, nor when faced with any of the numerous viral outbreaks which occur every winter have we ever before considered such irrational measures.
The world is more interconnected than at any point in history, the integrated nature of the world economy is the ultimate cause for the propagation of economic crisis at a global scale . A shock originated in a country may spread to its economic partners through multiple channels, including financial and trade [56, 57, 58]. The DHL Global Connectedness Index (GCI), in 2019, which highlights key developments in international flows of capital, trade, information, and people found that the world remains more connected than at almost any other point in history, with globalization remaining close to its 2017 peak . The consequence of this is that irrational or extreme decisions by just one, or a small collection of countries, can have extreme adverse effects on other countries through their impact on things like reducing aid and relief (UK foreign aid spending has already been cut by £2.9bn amid economic downturn caused by blanket lockdown), disrupting global value chains /supply chains, and/ or reducing trade (the World Trade Organisation expects trade to drop 13-32% this year as a result of Covid restrictions ) and tourism (a report by the UN secretary general suggests up to 120 million tourism jobs are at risk, with the economic damage likely to exceed $1 trillion in 2020 alone  and other estimates are far worse, the
World Travel and Tourism council predicts 197.5 million jobs will be lost if barriers, such as blanket travel restrictions and quarantines, remain in place . The United Nations World Tourism Organization estimated in May that international tourist numbers could fall 60-80% in 2020 , which is a devastating number when one considers that last year one in 10 people worked in travel and tourism-related jobs, contributing $8.9 trillion, or around 10.3%, to the global economy  and that tourism is the lifeblood to many economies like the Caribbean islands which rely heavily on tourism for employment with more than 90% of jobs in Antigua and Barbuda in 2019 being in the sector .). The painful irony of our blanket restrictions on travel and trade were demonstrated by a recent survey by the Office for National Statistics which found that going abroad does not increase the risk of contracting Covid-19 (The infection rate among those who travelled abroad in the past 30 days being 0.58%, compared with 0.49% for those in the UK) .
These impacts are not simply economic, lowering quality of life and crushing future generation’s opportunities, poverty can shorten lives and kill as much as any disease can. The impact of decisions by foreign countries can be directly life threatening to the population of others in myriad ways. The collective impact of blanket lockdown restrictions by governments around the world on their own domestic populations and those of foreign countries is appalling and murderous. This is a point I don't make lightly and intend to demonstrate and elaborate on now by exploring the international impact of indiscriminate lockdown restrictions.
Even if I devoted the rest of my life to the task, I could never come close to documenting all of the death, destruction, mayhem and misery attributable to blanket lockdown measures but I hope to shine a light on enough here to validate my point.
There is growing body of evidence that exponentially more deaths will prove to be collateral damage from actions taken to address Covid like blanket lockdown restrictions than deaths from the virus itself. Possibly the most harrowing figures of all are those representing either the immense increases in poverty around the world (which has increased for the first time in decades, ending 20 years of progress, with the impact on the economy of our extreme irrational response to Covid expected to push an additional 150 million into extreme poverty (defined as living on less than $1.90 a day) ), or the horrifying increase in hunger and starvation resulting from blanket lockdown restrictions. The head of the WHO has warned that lockdown restrictions are set to at least double child malnutrition .
David Beasley, executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP), warned that the world is teetering on the edge of a famine of “biblical” proportions – with Covid restrictions likely to put 130 million people at risk of starvation, on top of the 135 million who are already on the brink . No death is trivial but it is difficult not to look at the 1.34 million Covid deaths globally so far and not be shocked by the far greater number of potential deaths from hunger alone, numbering in the tens of millions, that our extreme lockdown measures may cause; if we end blanket lockdown measures immediately many of these lives may still be saved though. To put these numbers further into perspective, the WFP is currently providing food to nearly 100 million people every single day – and of that number, around 30 million depend on them for their very survival. According to their analysis, 300,000 people could starve to death each day in the coming months, if their ability to provide this normal support is disrupted as it has been by extreme lockdown restrictions throughout the world.
“If the world economy is hit and countries are not able to provide as much funding as they expect then, you know, you have a whole new scenario in your hands, which is really quite scary.” is a quote from Jane Howard head of communications at the WFP, discussing potential indirect deaths from measures taken to slow the spread of Covid, near the start of blanket lockdown, and the spread of the virus. Unfortunately, as I have mentioned above, the world economy has been smashed since this quote was taken and donations have already dropped dramatically (as mentioned above UK foreign aid has already dropped a massive £2.9bn ). In the Eurozone as a whole, contraction in the second quarter of this year alone wiped out more than a decade of expansion with the economy shrinking by record 12.1% due to coronavirus lockdown restrictions . The US economy has fared even worse, shrinking 32.9%, the biggest decline since 1940s . Moreover, shockingly, in the United States, there is joblessness on a scale not seen since the Great Depression, with more than 33 million unemployed . With each passing day these early WFP fears become more and more of a reality, with blanket lockdown measures still remaining in place months later to this day.
Furthermore, lockdown has reversed much of the past decades progress made each year against diseases and malnutrition. If we return to the levels of childhood mortality of just two or five years ago this could lead to as many as 6 or 20 million young lives being lost respectively over the next decade . Given that the World Health Organization now predicts that “we may well have a doubling of world poverty by next year. We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition.” the prospect of childhood deaths of this magnitude are horrifying likely . However, I reiterate, the sooner we halt blanket lockdown restrictions and switch to more targeted measures the more of these innocent lives we can potentially save.
Earlier in the year in regions throughout the world, from Honduras to South Africa to India, protests and looting broke out amid frustrations from lockdowns and worries about hunger . Largely this was driven by over 368 million children throughout the world losing the nutritious meals and snacks they normally receive in school due to blanket lockdown measures closing schools .
Devastating increases in poverty and hunger resulting from blanket lockdown restrictions are not limited to the hundreds of millions starving to death in low and middle income countries though. The impact has spread to first world countries as well. Take the US for example, a study by Americas largest hunger relief organization, ‘Feeding America’ found damage and disruption to the economy resulting from blanket lockdown restrictions will result in 17 million more people in the US struggling with hunger and the nation experiencing a potential shortfall of up to eight billion meals in the next 12 months, with the total need for charitable food over the next year expected to reach 7.71 billion kilograms – more than triple last year’s distribution .
The disruption caused to various organisations and charities ability to provide urgent and lifesaving medical treatment is likely to lead to losses of life far surpassing those from Covid as well.
A study by the Imperial College COVID-19 response team warned that, in some places, disruption to control of diseases such as HIV, tuberculosis and malaria could lead to losses on the same scale as those caused directly by the virus. The study quantified the extent to which disruptions in services for HIV, TB and malaria in high burden low- and middle-income countries could lead to additional loss of life and found that HIV, TB and malaria related deaths over 5 years may be increased by up to 10%, 20% and 36%, respectively  (equating to millions of excess deaths). Other sources have similarly pessimistic forecasts, with the WHO predicting malaria deaths will reach 769,000 this year alone due to lockdown disruptions, reversing 20 years of progress and expect undiagnosed/untreated TB cases to result in more than 1.4 million deaths excess deaths [120, 121].
Even more alarming still is the huge number of lives which could potentially be lost to other deadly diseases including cholera, rotavirus and diphtheria, which experts fear will far exceed lives lost from COVID if blanket lockdown restrictions are allowed to continue. To elaborate, the widespread interruption of routine immunization programs around the world due to blanket lockdown restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic is putting 80 million children under 1 year old at risk of contracting deadly, vaccine-preventable diseases, according to a report by the World Health Organization, UNICEF and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance . Aforementioned interruptions include flights delivering important medical supplies being cancelled (for example, up to 80% of flights to Africa carrying vaccines and syringes were canceled in March due to blanket lockdown), parents being irrationally afraid to bring their children to health clinics, many areas entering in and out of total lockdown, and thousands of health care workers who might otherwise be engaged in vaccination being diverted to respond to Covid-19 .
Tragically, the carnage caused by blanket lockdown restrictions on global health services ability to provide children with the life-saving medical care they require does not stop there. At least another 80 million children under one are at risk of diseases such as diphtheria, measles and polio as COVID-19 disrupts routine vaccination efforts, warn Gavi, WHO and UNICEF . The news that polio may be resurging is particularly devastating as it was approaching the end of a multi-billion dollar effort stretching back decades which meant it was tantalisingly close to joining the exclusive club of viruses that are extinct in the wild (in other words, our efforts to stop the spread of a not particularly deadly virus has brought another back into circulation, that may claim even more lives, and has cost us billions of pounds .
The impact of lockdown restrictions on vaccination programs is not limited to developing countries though, for example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that coverage rates among Michigan infants had dropped below 50 percent for all childhood immunizations  and New York City announced that during a six-week period of pandemic lockdown, the number of vaccine doses administered to children dropped 63 percent, compared with the same period last year .
Whilst statistics regarding death and starvation are perhaps the most visceral, many other health disasters have resulted from blanket lockdown restrictions around the world.
As the BBC reported “Early on, many nations were keen to reassure the public about the ways Covid-19 was being prioritized. In the UK, the government pledged to provide everything the health service needed to cope with the pandemic, “whatever it costs”. Similar steps were taken in countries around the world as they fought to tackle the rising infection rates. Anything considered non-urgent was delayed or cut back, from certain surgeries to sexual health services, stop smoking programmes, mental health support, dentistry, vaccinations, cancer screenings, and routine check-ups. It turns out all these things are important – there’s no such thing as a “spare” doctor or superfluous medical discipline after all. As a result, this intense focus on a single foe has already had some harrowing side-effects.” .
In the Balkans, women have been driven to try dangerous, experimental abortions themselves , while experts in the UK have reported a rise in DIY dentistry, as people turn to toe-curling improvisations involving chewing gum, wire-cutters, and superglue .
Further evidence still for the harms of lockdown is now piling up. In the US, homicides are up 50 per cent compared to last summer . In France, domestic violence calls are up 30 per cent . In Canada, almost three times more people are contemplating suicide compared to last year ; and in British Columbia, overdose deaths have tripled from pre-pandemic levels .
As mentioned, an area severely affected by indiscriminate lockdown restrictions is mental health. Some 93% of countries have reported disruptions to mental health services during the pandemic, with only 17% of nations providing additional funding according to the World Health Organisation . Blanket lockdown does not only end lives but diminishes the quality of life of near enough everyone it is imposed upon with long term consequences. Another study examining the toll blanket lockdown restrictions were having on the US
population found that conditions stemming from the novel coronavirus — rampant unemployment, isolation and an uncertain future — could lead to 75,000 deaths from drug or alcohol abuse and suicide alone . Countries throughout the developed world which enforced blanket lockdown measures are facing similar crises.
I list the preceding consequences because whilst it is clear to anyone that millions more are dying as a result of lockdown measures than from the virus itself, I wanted to better show the full extent of the wide range of preventable and unexpected health consequences indiscriminate lockdown has brought, which range from serious to deadly.
For a quantitative idea of the horrendous increases in preventable cancer deaths and other adverse health conditions that extreme lockdown measures can produce in a developed country refer back to the statistics I cited earlier for the UK, which are also momentous.
Whilst the consequences mentioned above are severe, as with most adverse/ collateral damage from drastic, hastily imposed public policy decisions, the true extent of the damage will only be discovered after the fact; just as the consequences mentioned above were. Therefore, the longer we continue blanket lockdown restrictions the more new and awful consequences will no doubt come to light, this is why we must end such extreme measures immediately.
Not only have blanket lockdown measures proven themselves to be ineffective and far more deadly than the virus itself, not only have these measures decimated our economy, prompted a global famine of biblical proportions  and set to double world poverty  but there are still so many other woeful consequences of indiscriminate lockdown to consider.
Extreme lockdown restrictions have greatly increased inequality, massively widening the gap between the rich and the poor as multi-millionaires and billionaires pick the corpse of our broken economies, buying cheap wildly undervalued assets with low interest loans amongst other capitalist tricks. A report by Swiss bank UBS found that billionaires increased their wealth by more than a quarter (27.5%) at the height of the crisis from April to July, just as millions of people around the world lost their jobs or were struggling to get by on government schemes [96, 97, 98]. The gap has also widened in UK schooling with figures from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) revealing the gap in quality of schooling England between some pupils and their wealthier peers has widened by 46% as a result of blanket lockdown restrictions .
Many teenagers futures have been jeopardised through them losing the opportunity to exceed low predicted grades from teachers, or those from absurd algorithms, due to their exams being cancelled ; children have missed out on months of schooling at crucial stages in their development (While the average learning lost was three months for all pupils, according to teachers, more than half of pupils at schools in the most deprived areas lost four months or more ; and university students have had their education spoiled by woeful attempts to implement courses online by flustered lecturers.
Weddings have been cancelled or postponed; tragically people have been unable to attend the funerals of loved ones; people of all faiths have been unable to attend religious services; many have celebrated their graduations and birthdays alone, essentially under house arrest; the closure of gyms, pools and sports clubs has impacted millions of peoples fitness, health and wellbeing [101, 102]; many sporting institutions and bodies have been put into financial
distress with many promising professional athletes careers cut short ; the performing arts of all kinds have been devastated, with many promising careers being cut short here too (in the US alone a report found that as much as $150bn in revenue has already been lost ); music concerts, cultural festivals and events of all kinds have been cancelled; visiting your parents for dinner has regularly been criminalised; long planned, once in a lifetime travel opportunities have been cancelled, potentially forever, the list goes on. Thousands of criminals, including sex offenders, have had their prison sentences cut short to be released early to the streets without justice for their victims having been fulfilled [105, 106].
Domestic violence, mental health issues and drug/ alcohol abuse have skyrocketed due to the toll blanket lockdown restrictions have had on people's health and wellbeing [107, 108, 109, 110].
Millions have been forced into unemployment, businesses people devoted their life and savings to destroyed irreparably by blanket lockdown measures, unskilled middle aged people forced to join the unemployment line for the first time in their life with little hope of a new career, an entire new generation of young people’s employment future smashed [111, 112, 113, 114]. Were we given any say in this? No. These decisions were made for us in a disgusting breach of our rights.
Thousands of elderly people have been essentially placed under house arrest, confined to their homes in complete isolation, often tormented by dementia accelerated by lack of stimulation [115, 116] or suffering from such severely diminished mobility from lack of physical activity that they will never be able to walk again unaided, for months on end only to spend their last days on earth alone. Denied the right to live and die on their own terms. Even by extreme estimates those over 70 still have a 96.9% survival rate from the virus  and aren't guaranteed to contract it with proper precautions undertaken. But we now live under a despotic regime that tells us what risks we can and can't take with our lives and criminalises priorities and value judgements not in line with those mandated by the government; perhaps for many getting to hug or play with their grandchildren again before they pass is a risk worth taking, even if it may mean potentially living a few weeks or months less when they are already on deaths door. How dare a small group of policy makers and scientific advisers instruct a whole nation on how to live their lives, it makes me sick. We're supposed to live in a western democracy yet our liberties have never been so under attack.
To quote Lord Sumption, once again, “there is more to life than the avoidance of death and if the cost of life is to suppress everything that makes it worth it then it is my belief the cost is too high… For a government to treat people as if they are too stupid, selfish or self-indulgent to act in their self-interest is both patronizing and intolerable in a democratic society. It’s also factually inaccurate.”
We are no longer spending actual money. We are now borrowing at the highest rate since we were fighting for our lives against the Germans in World War Two  (a debt which took us 61 years to pay off ). By borrowing so much money to fight an infectious but mostly non-lethal virus we have stolen from the future generations who will have to repay these massive debts. How dare we borrow from their future when they may need to borrow to fight their own environmental catastrophe, war or, inevitably, far more deadly virus? We have all acted like irrational, selfish cowards with no foresight, now I pray we at least have hindsight enough to end this madness and attempt to limit the horrendous damage we are doing to our country and young people’s futures.
"Being in a minority, even in a minority of one, did not make you mad. There was truth and there was untruth, and if you clung to the truth even against the whole world, you were not mad." - George Orwell, 1984
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